Türkiye 4–0 FYR Macedonia: Result & Stats

Türkiye

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FYR Macedonia

B. Yilmaz 70'

D. Gul 53'

C. Uzun 16'

O. Kokcu 2'

6/1/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalChobani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Türkiye61%

×Draw25%

FYR Macedonia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TürkiyeExpected goals in this matchFYR Macedonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.62

Türkiye

1.60

FYR Macedonia

0.62

Türkiye creates 158% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.81

creates per match

0.30

0.94

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Türkiye

1.81

FYR Macedonia

0.30

allows per match

Türkiye

0.94

FYR Macedonia

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

FYR Macedonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw

86%

Türkiye or FYR Macedonia

75%

Draw or FYR Macedonia

39%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+

34%

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals

80%

Türkiye 2+ goals

47%

Türkiye 3+ goals

22%

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

46%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

13%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)

81%

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.81 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

FYR Macedonia attack 0.30 + Türkiye defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Türkiye scores more

61%

level

25%

FYR Macedonia scores more

14%

Türkiye at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Uzun

Türkiye · M

8.9

Match Events

2'

16'

27'

42'

46'

46'

46'

46'

S. Emini← J. Atanasov

46'

V. Musliu← S. Despotovski

46'

M. Ristovski← B. Miovski

46'

D. Churlinov← D. Velkovski

46'

N. Serafimov← G. Zajkov

46'

J. Manev← I. Fetai

53'

D. Gul↳ C. Uzun

62'

M. Sengezer← A. Bayindir

62'

M. Demiral← C. Soyuncu

62'

B. Yilmaz← D. Gul

62'

A. Simsir← C. Uzun

62'

A. Guler← O. Aydin

62'

D. E. Tiknaz← S. Ozcan

66'

D. Taleski← S. Dimitrievski

66'

D. Dodev← A. Elezi

66'

B. Nikolov← E. Alioski

66'

D. Alomerovic← A. Omeragic

70'

B. Yilmaz↳ I. Kahveci

74'

E. Rastoder← E. Elmas

88'

H. Calhanoglu← M. Muldur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TürkiyeFYR

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots6

13Corners1

14Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots6

8On Target2

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

533Total Passes362

471Accurate Passes309

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1