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Türkiye vs Faroe Islands — UEFA Nations League 2018

Türkiye
Türkiye
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
6/4/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 1Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Türkiye54%
×Draw25%
Faroe Islands21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.58
Faroe Islands
0.88

Türkiye creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.83
Faroe Islands
0.67

allows per match

Türkiye
1.08
Faroe Islands
1.33

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
79%
Türkiye or Faroe Islands
75%
Draw or Faroe Islands
46%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
28%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
79%
Türkiye 2+ goals
47%
Türkiye 3+ goals
21%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
59%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
22%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
72%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.83 + Faroe Islands defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Faroe Islands attack 0.67 + Türkiye defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Türkiye scores more
54%
level
25%
Faroe Islands scores more
21%

Türkiye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkiye vs Faroe Islands

Türkiye beat Faroe Islands 4-0 in UEFA Nations League on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.