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Türkiye vs Azerbaijan — Friendlies 2026

Türkiye
Türkiye
CANC
22:00
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
5/25/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Antalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Türkiye50%
×Draw26%
Azerbaijan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkiye
1.54
Azerbaijan
1.01

Türkiye creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Türkiye
1.71
Azerbaijan
1.23

allows per match

Türkiye
0.79
Azerbaijan
1.38

finishing

Türkiye+0.00on par
Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkiye ↓

Azerbaijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Türkiye or draw
75%
Türkiye or Azerbaijan
74%
Draw or Azerbaijan
50%

Winning margin

Türkiye wins by 2+
25%
Azerbaijan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Türkiye 1+ goals
79%
Türkiye 2+ goals
45%
Türkiye 3+ goals
20%
Azerbaijan 1+ goals
64%
Azerbaijan 2+ goals
27%
Azerbaijan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Türkiye (draw refunded)
67%
Azerbaijan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkiye at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkiye attack 1.71 + Azerbaijan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Azerbaijan attack 1.23 + Türkiye defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Türkiye scores more
50%
level
26%
Azerbaijan scores more
25%

Türkiye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Türkiye host Azerbaijan

May 25, 2020: Türkiye take on Azerbaijan in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Türkiye host Azerbaijan at Antalya Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.