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Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Pipinsried — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pipinsried
Pipinsried
4/25/2026Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor20%
×Draw23%
Pipinsried58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkgücü-Ataspor
0.99
Pipinsried
1.86

Pipinsried creates 88% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
0.75
Pipinsried
1.35

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
2.38
Pipinsried
1.24

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par
Pipinsried+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

Pipinsried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw
42%
Türkgücü-Ataspor or Pipinsried
77%
Draw or Pipinsried
80%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
7%
Pipinsried wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
63%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
26%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
8%
Pipinsried 1+ goals
84%
Pipinsried 2+ goals
55%
Pipinsried 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
26%
Pipinsried (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Pipinsried away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 0.75 + Pipinsried defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Pipinsried attack 1.35 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
20%
level
23%
Pipinsried scores more
58%

Pipinsried at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pipinsried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Türkgücü-Ataspor 0–0 Pipinsried

Türkgücü-Ataspor and Pipinsried drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Munich.