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Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Illertissen
Illertissen
5/20/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 37Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor45%
×Draw24%
Illertissen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.62
Illertissen
1.29

Türkgücü-Ataspor creates 26% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.65
Illertissen
1.52

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.06
Illertissen
1.59

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw
69%
Türkgücü-Ataspor or Illertissen
76%
Draw or Illertissen
55%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
23%
Illertissen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
80%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
48%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
22%
Illertissen 1+ goals
72%
Illertissen 2+ goals
37%
Illertissen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
60%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.65 + Illertissen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Illertissen attack 1.52 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
45%
level
24%
Illertissen scores more
31%

Türkgücü-Ataspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Türkgücü-Ataspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Illertissen

Türkgücü-Ataspor and Illertissen drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.