Türkgücü-Ataspor 3–3 FC Schweinfurt 05

Türkgücü-Ataspor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FC Schweinfurt 05

S. Maderer 90'

M. Şahin 56'

E. Tunc 18'

A. Istrefi 67'

K. Fery 40'

H. Anapak-Baka 16'

4/7/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 28Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor45%

×Draw23%

FC Schweinfurt 0532%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Türkgücü-AtasporExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.44

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.74

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.44

Türkgücü-Ataspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

1.65

creates per match

1.79

1.08

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.65

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.79

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.08

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw

68%

Türkgücü-Ataspor or FC Schweinfurt 05

77%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

55%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+

24%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals

82%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals

52%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals

25%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

76%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

42%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)

58%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.65 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.79 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more

45%

level

23%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

32%

Türkgücü-Ataspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Türkgücü-Ataspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

40'

56'

59'

63'

67'

70'

B. Nana Tonzi← E. Mahmuti

76'

T. Berk-Aksu← H. Anapak-Baka

81'

Y. Motango← F. Morou

82'

J. Landeck← B. Nana Tonzi

88'

T. Feulner← A. Istrefi

90'

S. Maderer

Türkgücü-Ataspor

FC

24

32

18

13

8

⚽

▼

Istrefi

15

⚽

Fery

6

▼

Mahmuti

14

N'gatie

10

⚽

▼

7

29

31

55

8

70

▼

Morou

21

⚽

▼

15

24

33

19

⚽

Maderer

9

▼

Crnički

38

⚽

Tunc

Manager: A. Kayabunar

59'▲K. Aygün←▼M. Crnički

63'▲L. Haas←▼M. Şahin

81'▲Y. Motango←▼F. Morou

Türkgücü-Ataspor substitutes

7Aygün26Haas17Motango12Musa18Amdouni54Arslan61Tosun99Demir22Sefidanoski

Manager: M. Reitmaier

70'▲B. Nana Tonzi←▼E. Mahmuti

76'▲T. Berk-Aksu←▼H. Anapak-Baka

82'▲J. Landeck←▼B. Nana Tonzi

88'▲T. Feulner←▼A. Istrefi

FC Schweinfurt 05 substitutes

3Tonzi11Berk-Aksu35Landeck22Feulner17Rumpel20Wenzel33Henninger25Wehner

Regionalliga - Bayern: Türkgücü-Ataspor 3–3 FC Schweinfurt 05

Türkgücü-Ataspor and FC Schweinfurt 05 drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 7, 2024.

Goals: H. Anapak-Baka (16'), E. Tunc (18'), K. Fery (40'), M. Şahin (56'), A. Istrefi (67'), S. Maderer (90').

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.

Türkgücü-Ataspor vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - Bayern: Türkgücü-Ataspor 3–3 FC Schweinfurt 05