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Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
9/9/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor58%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Bamberg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.82
Eintracht Bamberg
0.94

Türkgücü-Ataspor creates 94% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.65
Eintracht Bamberg
0.82

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.06
Eintracht Bamberg
2.00

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw
81%
Türkgücü-Ataspor or Eintracht Bamberg
77%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
42%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
33%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
84%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
54%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
27%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
61%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
24%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
75%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.65 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
58%
level
23%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
19%

Türkgücü-Ataspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Türkgücü-Ataspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Türkgücü-Ataspor vs Eintracht Bamberg

Türkgücü-Ataspor beat Eintracht Bamberg 4-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.