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Turkey W vs Romania W — Friendlies Women 2020

Turkey W
Turkey W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Romania W
Romania W
2/28/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Manavgat Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Turkey W77%
×Draw16%
Romania W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey W
2.33
Romania W
0.58

Turkey W creates 302% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Turkey W
2.67
Romania W
0.50

allows per match

Turkey W
0.67
Romania W
2.00

finishing

Turkey W+0.00on par
Romania W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey W ↓

Romania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Turkey W or draw
92%
Turkey W or Romania W
84%
Draw or Romania W
23%

Winning margin

Turkey W wins by 2+
53%
Romania W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Turkey W 1+ goals
90%
Turkey W 2+ goals
67%
Turkey W 3+ goals
41%
Romania W 1+ goals
44%
Romania W 2+ goals
12%
Romania W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Turkey W (draw refunded)
91%
Romania W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Romania W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey W attack 2.67 + Romania W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Romania W attack 0.50 + Turkey W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Turkey W scores more
77%
level
16%
Romania W scores more
8%

Turkey W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Turkey W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turkey W vs Romania W

Turkey W beat Romania W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Manavgat Atatürk Stadı in Manavgat.