Turkey W 1–1 Albania W: Result & Stats

Turkey W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albania W

E. Topcu 50'

A. Hila 23'

11/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turkey W64%

×Draw22%

Albania W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey WExpected goals in this matchAlbania W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.71

Turkey W

1.83

Albania W

0.71

Turkey W creates 158% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.67

creates per match

0.75

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Turkey W

2.67

Albania W

0.75

allows per match

Turkey W

0.67

Albania W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey W+0.00on par

Albania W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey W ↓

Albania W →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turkey W or draw

86%

Turkey W or Albania W

78%

Draw or Albania W

36%

Winning margin

Turkey W wins by 2+

38%

Albania W wins by 2+

Team goals

Turkey W 1+ goals

84%

Turkey W 2+ goals

54%

Turkey W 3+ goals

28%

Albania W 1+ goals

51%

Albania W 2+ goals

16%

Albania W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Turkey W (draw refunded)

82%

Albania W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turkey W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Albania W away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turkey W attack 2.67 + Albania W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Albania W attack 0.75 + Turkey W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Turkey W scores more

64%

level

22%

Albania W scores more

14%

Turkey W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Turkey W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Hila

50'

E. Topcu

71'

S. Altunkulak← M. Pekel

74'

S. Begallo← F. Berisha

75'

T. Deda← I. Zarka

82'

I. Zarka

83'

E. Franja

86'

I. Cansu Kara← I. Civelek

86'

S. Birgul← E. Turkoglu

90'

D. Leka← V. Troka

Turkey

Albania

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: N. Kırağası

71'▲S. Altunkulak←▼M. Pekel

86'▲I. Cansu Kara←▼I. Civelek

86'▲S. Birgul←▼E. Turkoglu

Turkey W substitutes

12Caglar23Guleryuz2Kucukbirinci3Kara5Cemal6Cal13Birgul14Sensizoglu11Ozturk15Arhan18Altunkulak22Kaya

Manager: A. Grimaj

74'▲S. Begallo←▼F. Berisha

75'▲T. Deda←▼I. Zarka

90'▲D. Leka←▼V. Troka

Albania W substitutes

1Hyska2Tukaj4Vuksani6Tom8Deda13Redzepi15Iliadhi17Leka18Begallo19Islam22Borci25Tahirukaj