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Turkey U21 vs Georgia U21 — Friendlies 2026

Turkey U21
Turkey U21
FT
2 – 1
Georgia U21
Georgia U21
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turkey U2161%
×Draw24%
Georgia U2115%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U21
1.67
Georgia U21
0.67

Turkey U21 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Turkey U21
1.33
Georgia U21
1.00

allows per match

Turkey U21
0.33
Georgia U21
2.00

finishing

Turkey U21+0.00on par
Georgia U21+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U21 ↓

Georgia U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Turkey U21 or draw
85%
Turkey U21 or Georgia U21
76%
Draw or Georgia U21
39%

Winning margin

Turkey U21 wins by 2+
34%
Georgia U21 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Turkey U21 1+ goals
81%
Turkey U21 2+ goals
50%
Turkey U21 3+ goals
23%
Georgia U21 1+ goals
49%
Georgia U21 2+ goals
15%
Georgia U21 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Turkey U21 (draw refunded)
81%
Georgia U21 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U21 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Georgia U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U21 attack 1.33 + Georgia U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Georgia U21 attack 1.00 + Turkey U21 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Turkey U21 scores more
61%
level
24%
Georgia U21 scores more
15%

Turkey U21 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Turkey U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turkey U21 vs Georgia U21

Turkey U21 beat Georgia U21 2-1 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.