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Turkey U19 W vs Romania U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Turkey U19 W
Turkey U19 W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Romania U19 W
Romania U19 W
T. Naz Turcin 75' (pen), 55'
2/23/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Turkey U19 W30%
×Draw21%
Romania U19 W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U19 W
1.60
Romania U19 W
2.10

Romania U19 W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Turkey U19 W
1.40
Romania U19 W
3.40

allows per match

Turkey U19 W
0.80
Romania U19 W
1.80

finishing

Turkey U19 W+0.00on par
Romania U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 W ↓

Romania U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Turkey U19 W or draw
51%
Turkey U19 W or Romania U19 W
79%
Draw or Romania U19 W
70%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 W wins by 2+
14%
Romania U19 W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Turkey U19 W 1+ goals
80%
Turkey U19 W 2+ goals
47%
Turkey U19 W 3+ goals
22%
Romania U19 W 1+ goals
88%
Romania U19 W 2+ goals
62%
Romania U19 W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 W (draw refunded)
38%
Romania U19 W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Romania U19 W away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 W attack 1.40 + Romania U19 W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Romania U19 W attack 3.40 + Turkey U19 W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turkey U19 W scores more
30%
level
21%
Romania U19 W scores more
49%

Romania U19 W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Romania U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
T. Naz Turcin
75'
T. Naz TurcinPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Turkey U19 W 2–0 Romania U19 W

Turkey U19 W beat Romania U19 W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on February 23, 2025.

Goals: T. Naz Turcin (55', 75' pen).