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Turkey U19 W vs Morocco U20 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Turkey U19 W
Turkey U19 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Morocco U20 W
Morocco U20 W
N. Sarac 43'
I. Aboucharif 29'
2/20/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turkey U19 W22%
×Draw22%
Morocco U20 W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U19 W
1.20
Morocco U20 W
2.02

Morocco U20 W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Turkey U19 W
1.40
Morocco U20 W
3.25

allows per match

Turkey U19 W
0.80
Morocco U20 W
1.00

finishing

Turkey U19 W+0.00on par
Morocco U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 W ↓

Morocco U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Turkey U19 W or draw
44%
Turkey U19 W or Morocco U20 W
78%
Draw or Morocco U20 W
78%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 W wins by 2+
9%
Morocco U20 W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Turkey U19 W 1+ goals
70%
Turkey U19 W 2+ goals
34%
Turkey U19 W 3+ goals
12%
Morocco U20 W 1+ goals
87%
Morocco U20 W 2+ goals
60%
Morocco U20 W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 W (draw refunded)
28%
Morocco U20 W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Morocco U20 W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 W attack 1.40 + Morocco U20 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Morocco U20 W attack 3.25 + Turkey U19 W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Turkey U19 W scores more
22%
level
22%
Morocco U20 W scores more
56%

Morocco U20 W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Morocco U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
I. Aboucharif
43'
N. Sarac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Turkey U19 W 1–1 Morocco U20 W

Turkey U19 W and Morocco U20 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 20, 2025.

Goals: I. Aboucharif (29'), N. Sarac (43').