Turkey U19 1–3 Wales U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Wales U19

B. Başkan 43'

E. Myles 82'

G. Biancheri 67'

F. Issaka 3'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3The Educate Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turkey U1950%

×Draw21%

Wales U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchWales U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.59

Turkey U19

2.13

Wales U19

1.59

Turkey U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.76

creates per match

2.00

1.19

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Wales U19

2.00

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Wales U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Wales U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Wales U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

71%

Turkey U19 or Wales U19

79%

Draw or Wales U19

50%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

29%

Wales U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

88%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

63%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

35%

Wales U19 1+ goals

80%

Wales U19 2+ goals

47%

Wales U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Wales U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Wales U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Wales U19 attack 2.00 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Wales U19 scores more

29%

Turkey U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

F. Issaka

43'

B. Başkan

46'

E. Myles← C. Allen

46'

V. Yoganathan← C. Twose

55'

H. Ertürk← E. Korkut

59'

T. Perrett← C. Crew

62'

A. Usluoğlu← E. Gökay

62'

67'

70'

70'

74'

78'

78'

82'

90'

90+4'

Turkey

Wales

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Başkan

Dilek

Manager: S. Sarıoğlu

55'▲H. Ertürk←▼E. Korkut

62'▲A. Usluoğlu←▼E. Gökay

62'▲T. Aydın←▼O. Yılmaz

74'▲G. Gürpüz←▼B. Başkan

Turkey U19 substitutes

ErtürkUsluoğluAydınGürpüzÇetinTibukoğluDemirArkutcuDönmez

Manager: C. Gunter

46'▲E. Myles←▼C. Allen

46'▲V. Yoganathan←▼C. Twose

59'▲T. Perrett←▼C. Crew

78'▲A. Tuck←▼D. Mafico

78'▲S. Parker←▼F. Issaka

Wales U19 substitutes

MylesYoganathanPerrettTuckParkerClarkeBenjamin