Turkey U19 1–2 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Scotland U19

T. Akgün 66'

A. Lowry 70' (pen), 54'

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Turkey U1966%

×Draw19%

Scotland U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.04

Turkey U19

2.33

Scotland U19

1.04

Turkey U19 creates 124% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

2.76

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

84%

Turkey U19 or Scotland U19

81%

Draw or Scotland U19

34%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

43%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

90%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

67%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

41%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

65%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

28%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.33

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

66%

level

19%

Scotland U19 scores more

16%

Turkey U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

48'

53'

53'

54'

55'

A. Şahindere← B. İnce

55'

T. Akgün← M. Karaal

66'

T. Akgün

70'

A. LowryPenalty

71'

Y. Çeltik← E. Demir

71'

C. Mochrie← A. Brooks

71'

R. Apter← L. Coulton

82'

L. Butterfield← Matthew Craig

82'

L. Smith← A. Lowry

86'

L. Smith

87'

E. Aydın← M. Altunbaş

90+2'

C. McKinnon← Michael Craig

Turkey

Scotland

1

Hogarth

3

▼

2

5

6

4

8

▼

Craig

7

▼

Craig

11

⚽2

▼

Lowry

10

Carse

9

▼

1

2

4

5

10

11

▼

İnce

6

Elmaz

19

▼

Karaal

9

▼

Altunbaş

14

▼

Demir

17

Karataş

Manager: O. Zayim

55'▲A. Şahindere←▼B. İnce

55'▲T. Akgün←▼M. Karaal

71'▲Y. Çeltik←▼E. Demir

87'▲E. Aydın←▼M. Altunbaş

Turkey U19 substitutes

15Şahindere7Akgün8Çeltik16Aydın20Gülay13Erciyas3Zehir12Moradaoğlu18Sönmezsoy

Manager: B. Stark

71'▲C. Mochrie←▼A. Brooks

71'▲R. Apter←▼L. Coulton

82'▲L. Butterfield←▼Matthew Craig

82'▲L. Smith←▼A. Lowry

90+2'▲C. McKinnon←▼Michael Craig

Scotland U19 substitutes

18Mochrie16Apter15Butterfield17Smith14McKinnon19Mebude12Johnson13Johnston20Duncan

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Turkey U19 1–2 Scotland U19

Scotland U19 beat Turkey U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2022.

Goals: A. Lowry (54', 70' pen), T. Akgün (66').

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.

Turkey U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Turkey U19 1–2 Scotland U19