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Turkey U19 vs Romania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Turkey U19
Turkey U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Romania U19
Romania U19
3/20/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Gradski Stadion kraj Sajmišta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Turkey U1958%
×Draw21%
Romania U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U19
2.06
Romania U19
1.14

Turkey U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Turkey U19
2.76
Romania U19
1.09

allows per match

Turkey U19
1.19
Romania U19
1.36

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par
Romania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Romania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw
79%
Turkey U19 or Romania U19
79%
Draw or Romania U19
42%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+
35%
Romania U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals
87%
Turkey U19 2+ goals
61%
Turkey U19 3+ goals
34%
Romania U19 1+ goals
68%
Romania U19 2+ goals
32%
Romania U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Romania U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Romania U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Romania U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Romania U19 attack 1.09 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Turkey U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
Romania U19 scores more
21%

Turkey U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Romania U19

Turkey U19 beat Romania U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion kraj Sajmišta in Vrbovec.