Turkey U19 2–0 Malta U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malta U19

G. Gürpüz 54'

D. Avcı 49'

10/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Turkey U1974%

×Draw15%

Malta U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchMalta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.04

Turkey U19

2.83

Malta U19

1.04

Turkey U19 creates 172% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

2.76

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Malta U19

0.90

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Malta U19

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Malta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Malta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

89%

Turkey U19 or Malta U19

85%

Draw or Malta U19

26%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

53%

Malta U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

94%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

77%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

53%

Malta U19 1+ goals

65%

Malta U19 2+ goals

28%

Malta U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Malta U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Malta U19 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.83

Malta U19 attack 0.90 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

74%

level

15%

Malta U19 scores more

11%

Turkey U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

46'

46'

49'

54'

54'

60'

B. İngenç← E. Arkutcu

60'

K. Kayaarası← A. Usluoğlu

63'

J. Azzopardi← T. Melillo

63'

K. Bartolo← N. Agius

63'

L. Delicata← B. Cassar

66'

L. Okeke

75'

V. Yıldız← İ. Vural

82'

T. Eviparker← K. Ewurum

Turkey

Malta

1

4

5

6

3

16

15

▼

Melillo

14

Agius

8

▼

Cassar

7

▼

Agius

9

▼

1

13

4

14

▼

Özkul

3

Akçiçek

10

⚽

Gürpüz

18

Akman

8

▼

Yılmaz

16

▼

Vural

17

▼

Arkutcu

7

▼

Usluoğlu

Manager: S. Sarıoğlu

46'▲D. Avcı←▼B. Yılmaz

46'▲T. Aydın←▼E. Özkul

60'▲B. İngenç←▼E. Arkutcu

60'▲K. Kayaarası←▼A. Usluoğlu

75'▲V. Yıldız←▼İ. Vural

Turkey U19 substitutes

20Avcı5Aydın19İngenç11Kayaarası6Yıldız2Berkay15Güreler12Çevikkan9Dilek

Manager: P. Gatt

63'▲J. Azzopardi←▼T. Melillo

63'▲K. Bartolo←▼N. Agius

63'▲L. Delicata←▼B. Cassar

82'▲T. Eviparker←▼K. Ewurum

Malta U19 substitutes

11Azzopardi19Bartolo10Delicata18Eviparker17Sammut12Sissons13Hili2Briffa20Ohaka

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Malta U19

Turkey U19 beat Malta U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2024.

Goals: D. Avcı (49'), G. Gürpüz (54').

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Turkey U19 vs Malta U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Malta U19