Turkey U19 4–4 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Luxembourg U19

B. İnce 76', 23'

B. Önal 62' (pen)

S. Satılmış 38'

J. Alves Rodrigues 73' (pen)

L. Elshan 68', 13', 4'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Turkey U1963%

×Draw19%

Luxembourg U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.16

Turkey U19

2.35

Luxembourg U19

1.16

Turkey U19 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

2.76

creates per match

1.13

1.19

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

82%

Turkey U19 or Luxembourg U19

81%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

37%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

41%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

90%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

68%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

41%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

69%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

32%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.35

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

18%

Turkey U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

13'

23'

29'

38'

42'

M. Dagasan

46'

P. Yıldırım← Y. Kerem

56'

A. Karapo← Y. Kavas

62'

B. ÖnalPenalty

66'

E. Tintis

68'

L. Elshan

73'

J. Alves RodriguesPenalty

74'

D. Khatri← D. Monteiro de Oliveira

76'

B. İnce

78'

B. Aydınlık← M. Büyüksayar

78'

D. Dağdeviren← S. Satılmış

86'

J. Videira

87'

T. Souchard← L. Elshan

88'

H. Luis

90+1'

F. Yöntem← H. Akman

90+7'

M. Fernandes← R. Klisurica

Turkey

Luxembourg

1

Margato

2

Torres

5

▼

Klisurica

8

▼

Oliveira

10

⚽3

▼

6

7

4

3

9

11

⚽

Rodrigues

1

Yılmaz

3

Tintiş

5

▼

Kavas

4

Yılmaz

2

Dağaşan

7

▼

Büyüksaya

10

⚽2

İnce

8

⚽

▼

Satılmış

11

▼

Kerem

6

▼

Akman

9

⚽

Önal

Manager: A. Başkan

46'▲P. Yıldırım←▼Y. Kerem

56'▲A. Karapo←▼Y. Kavas

78'▲B. Aydınlık←▼M. Büyüksayar

78'▲D. Dağdeviren←▼S. Satılmış

90+1'▲F. Yöntem←▼H. Akman

Turkey U19 substitutes

16Yıldırım18Karapo15Aydınlık20Dağdeviren17Yöntem13Kırtaş19Ortakaya12Erdoğan14Erdem

Manager: M. Mutsch

74'▲D. Khatri←▼D. Monteiro de Oliveira

87'▲T. Souchard←▼L. Elshan

90+7'▲M. Fernandes←▼R. Klisurica

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

16Khatri19Souchard15Fernandes20Lima13Totaro14Araujo12Scheidweiler18Sousa17Flick

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Turkey U19 4–4 Luxembourg U19

Turkey U19 and Luxembourg U19 drew 4-4 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 21, 2022.

Goals: L. Elshan (4', 13', 68'), B. İnce (23', 76'), S. Satılmış (38'), B. Önal (62' pen), J. Alves Rodrigues (73' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.

Turkey U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Turkey U19 4–4 Luxembourg U19