Turkey U19 3–1 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lithuania U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Emirhan Sport Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turkey U1967%

×Draw19%

Lithuania U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.98

Turkey U19

2.30

Lithuania U19

0.98

Turkey U19 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

2.76

creates per match

0.77

1.19

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

85%

Turkey U19 or Lithuania U19

81%

Draw or Lithuania U19

33%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

44%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

90%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

67%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

40%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

62%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

26%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.30

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

67%

level

19%

Lithuania U19 scores more

15%

Turkey U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff