Turkey U19 2–1 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia U19

P. Abay 69'

M. Altunbaş 53'

O. Raščevskis 90+1'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Emirhan Sport Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Turkey U1963%

×Draw20%

Latvia U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.07

Turkey U19

2.22

Latvia U19

1.07

Turkey U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

2.76

creates per match

0.95

1.19

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.76

Latvia U19

0.95

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.19

Latvia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

83%

Turkey U19 or Latvia U19

80%

Draw or Latvia U19

37%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

40%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

89%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

65%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

38%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

66%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

29%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.22

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

63%

level

20%

Latvia U19 scores more

17%

Turkey U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

D. Rogovs← N. Sliede

46'

M. Altunbaş← E. Aydın

46'

S. Cebeci← İ. Zehir

46'

S. Yiğit← B. Ceylan

46'

N. Skrinda← M. Mikšto

46'

V. Lizunovs← K. Kaušelis

53'

M. Altunbaş

67'

P. Abay← E. Demir

69'

A. Krancmanis← K. Penkevics

69'

P. Abay

70'

R. Aršauskis← J. Novikovs

90'

A. Şahindere← P. Yaldır

90+1'

O. Raščevskis

Turkey

Latvia

12

Šaraņins

3

Pikšens

2

▼

Sliede

13

▼

Novikovs

4

Treimanis

6

Fjodorovs

7

⚽

Raščevski

10

Vapne

11

▼

Penkevics

22

▼

Mikšto

9

▼

Kaušelis

1

Çetin

4

Bayram

2

▼

16

10

6

8

▼

Zehir

11

▼

Demir

17

Karataş

18

▼

Yaldır

9

▼

Aydın

Manager: M. Yildirim

46'▲M. Altunbaş←▼E. Aydın

46'▲S. Cebeci←▼İ. Zehir

46'▲S. Yiğit←▼B. Ceylan

67'▲P. Abay←▼E. Demir

90'▲A. Şahindere←▼P. Yaldır

Turkey U19 substitutes

19Altunbaş15Cebeci13Yiğit3Abay14Şahindere20Gülay5Kaplan12Moradaoğlu7Akgün

Manager: J. Dovalil

37'▲D. Rogovs←▼N. Sliede

46'▲N. Skrinda←▼M. Mikšto

46'▲V. Lizunovs←▼K. Kaušelis

69'▲A. Krancmanis←▼K. Penkevics

70'▲R. Aršauskis←▼J. Novikovs

Latvia U19 substitutes

5Rogovs8Skrinda20Lizunovs19Krancmanis18Aršauskis16Vilnis17Ostapenko21Puzirevskis23Parfjonovs