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Turkey U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Turkey U19
Turkey U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Italy U19
Italy U19
D. Soylu 62'
S. Inacio 33'
3/31/2026UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turkey U1943%
×Draw23%
Italy U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U19
1.72
Italy U19
1.48

Turkey U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Turkey U19
2.76
Italy U19
1.77

allows per match

Turkey U19
1.19
Italy U19
0.69

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par
Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Italy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw
67%
Turkey U19 or Italy U19
77%
Draw or Italy U19
57%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+
23%
Italy U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals
82%
Turkey U19 2+ goals
51%
Turkey U19 3+ goals
25%
Italy U19 1+ goals
77%
Italy U19 2+ goals
43%
Italy U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Italy U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Italy U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.72

Italy U19 attack 1.77 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Turkey U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Italy U19 scores more
33%

Turkey U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
S. Inacio
42'
R. Atsup
46'
M. Sen← E. Yasar
61'
L. Reggiani
62'
D. Soylu
72'
C. Comotto← F. Coletta
74'
O. Cakiroglu← H. Bulut
80'
M. Cocchi
83'
E. Altundag← D. Soylu
84'
E. Altundag
87'
T. E. Ince← R. Atsup
90+5'
T. E. Ince
90+5'
M. Pessina
90+5'
D. Ofli
Turkey
Italy
S. Sarıoğlu
Manager: S. Sarıoğlu
46'▲M. Sen←▼E. Yasar
74'▲O. Cakiroglu←▼H. Bulut
83'▲E. Altundag←▼D. Soylu
87'▲T. E. Ince←▼R. Atsup
A. Bollini
Manager: A. Bollini
72'▲C. Comotto←▼F. Coletta

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Italy U19

Turkey U19 and Italy U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 31, 2026.

Goals: S. Inacio (33'), D. Soylu (62').

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.