Turkey U19 vs Gibraltar U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Turkey U1997%
Gibraltar U191%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Turkey U19 creates 1159% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over87
- Under13
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No68
- Yes32
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Turkey U19 ↓
Most likely 4–0 (16%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Turkey U19 at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches
Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.67 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Turkey U19 attack 3.15 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.67 → ÷2 → 4.91
Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Turkey U19 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 97%?"
Turkey U19 at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 97% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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England U19
Italy U19
France U19
Denmark U19Turkey U19
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Ukraine U19
Croatia U19
Spain U19
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Germany U19
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Belgium U19
Serbia U19
Sweden U19
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Portugal U19
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Finland U19
Greece U19
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Kazakhstan U19
Kosovo U19
Switzerland U19
Latvia U19
Poland U19
Slovakia U19
Lithuania U19
Iceland U19
Luxembourg U19
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Slovenia U19
Belarus U19
Israel U19
Andorra U19
Albania U19
Republic of Ireland U19
Armenia U19
Scotland U19
Montenegro U19
North Macedonia U19
Wales U19
Bulgaria U19
Georgia U19
ABFF U19
Azerbaijan U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Estonia U19
Malta U19
Cyprus U19
Faroe Islands U19
San Marino U19Gibraltar U19
Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Turkey U19 host Gibraltar U19 on Wednesday, 9 October 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Gibraltar U19
Turkey U19 beat Gibraltar U19 7-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2024.
Goals: Y. Akçiçek (14'), R. Dilek (24', 48'), İ. Vural (37'), G. Gürpüz (46', 55'), A. Usluoğlu (69').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.