Turkey U19 3–3 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Turkey U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Denmark U19

E. Sarıkaya 70'

P. Yıldırım 53'

E. Bars 27'

A. Simmelhack 76'

M. Krüger-Johnsen 64'

O. Schwartau 18'

7/22/2024

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Turkey U1950%

×Draw21%

Denmark U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.54

Turkey U19

2.10

Denmark U19

1.54

Turkey U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Turkey U19

2.33

Denmark U19

1.57

allows per match

Turkey U19

1.50

Denmark U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw

72%

Turkey U19 or Denmark U19

79%

Draw or Denmark U19

50%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

30%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals

88%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

62%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

35%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

79%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

45%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.33 + Denmark U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

Denmark U19 attack 1.57 + Turkey U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Turkey U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Denmark U19 scores more

28%

Turkey U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Yıldırım

Turkey U19 · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Haluk Mustafa Tan

18'

O. Schwartau↳ V. Byskov

27'

E. Bars↳ P. Yıldırım

45+1'

O. Boesen← T. Jørgensen

46'

E. Demircan← F. Ay

46'

A. Simmelhack← M. Opoku

53'

P. Yıldırım↳ E. Bars

57'

M. Krüger-Johnsen← L. Flø

57'

L. Høgsberg← H. Bidstrup

64'

E. Uzun← E. Bars

64'

M. Krüger-Johnsen↳ V. Byskov

70'

E. Sarıkaya↳ E. Uzun

76'

A. Simmelhack↳ M. Krüger-Johnsen

77'

H. Özdemir← P. Yıldırım

77'

E. Arıkan← D. Dağdeviren

87'

Halil Özdemir

89'

F. Roslyng← M. Lauritsen

90+2'

Mikel Gogorza

90+1'

H. Tan← A. Bülbül

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TurkeyDenmark

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots7

3Corners4

13Fouls23

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target4

4Off Target0

6Blocked3

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

326Total Passes517

225Accurate Passes415

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls23

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Denmark U19

Turkey U19 and Denmark U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 22, 2024.

Goals: O. Schwartau (18'), E. Bars (27'), P. Yıldırım (53'), M. Krüger-Johnsen (64'), E. Sarıkaya (70'), A. Simmelhack (76').

Denmark U19 controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.

Turkey U19 vs Denmark U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Denmark U19