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Turkey U19 vs Croatia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Turkey U19
Turkey U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Croatia U19
Croatia U19
3/23/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turkey U1956%
×Draw21%
Croatia U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U19
2.04
Croatia U19
1.21

Turkey U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Turkey U19
2.76
Croatia U19
1.23

allows per match

Turkey U19
1.19
Croatia U19
1.31

finishing

Turkey U19+0.00on par
Croatia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U19 ↓

Croatia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Turkey U19 or draw
78%
Turkey U19 or Croatia U19
79%
Draw or Croatia U19
44%

Winning margin

Turkey U19 wins by 2+
34%
Croatia U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Turkey U19 1+ goals
87%
Turkey U19 2+ goals
60%
Turkey U19 3+ goals
33%
Croatia U19 1+ goals
70%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
34%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Croatia U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U19 attack 2.76 + Croatia U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Croatia U19 attack 1.23 + Turkey U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Turkey U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
Croatia U19 scores more
22%

Turkey U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Turkey U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turkey U19 vs Croatia U19

Turkey U19 beat Croatia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin.