Turkey U18 W 1–1 Morocco U17 W: Result & Stats

Turkey U18 W

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morocco U17 W

E. Mutlu 18'

A. Lakradi 90'

4/14/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turkey U18 W63%

×Draw22%

Morocco U17 W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U18 WExpected goals in this matchMorocco U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.75

Turkey U18 W

1.82

Morocco U17 W

0.75

Turkey U18 W creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Turkey U18 W

1.40

Morocco U17 W

0.50

allows per match

Turkey U18 W

1.00

Morocco U17 W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U18 W+0.00on par

Morocco U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U18 W ↓

Morocco U17 W →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Turkey U18 W or draw

85%

Turkey U18 W or Morocco U17 W

78%

Draw or Morocco U17 W

37%

Winning margin

Turkey U18 W wins by 2+

37%

Morocco U17 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Turkey U18 W 1+ goals

84%

Turkey U18 W 2+ goals

54%

Turkey U18 W 3+ goals

27%

Morocco U17 W 1+ goals

53%

Morocco U17 W 2+ goals

17%

Morocco U17 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Turkey U18 W (draw refunded)

81%

Morocco U17 W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turkey U18 W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Morocco U17 W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U18 W attack 1.40 + Morocco U17 W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Morocco U17 W attack 0.50 + Turkey U18 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Turkey U18 W scores more

63%

level

22%

Morocco U17 W scores more

15%

Turkey U18 W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Turkey U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

E. Mutlu

90'

A. Lakradi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff