Turkey U18 0–0 Romania U18: Result & Stats

Turkey U18

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Romania U18

10/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turkey U1830%

×Draw31%

Romania U1839%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U18Expected goals in this matchRomania U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.06

Turkey U18

0.88

Romania U18

1.06

Romania U18 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.75

creates per match

0.88

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Turkey U18

0.75

Romania U18

0.88

allows per match

Turkey U18

1.25

Romania U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U18+0.00on par

Romania U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U18 ↓

Romania U18 →

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Turkey U18 or draw

61%

Turkey U18 or Romania U18

69%

Draw or Romania U18

70%

Winning margin

Turkey U18 wins by 2+

10%

Romania U18 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Turkey U18 1+ goals

59%

Turkey U18 2+ goals

22%

Turkey U18 3+ goals

Romania U18 1+ goals

65%

Romania U18 2+ goals

29%

Romania U18 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Turkey U18 (draw refunded)

43%

Romania U18 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turkey U18 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Romania U18 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U18 attack 0.75 + Romania U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Romania U18 attack 0.88 + Turkey U18 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Turkey U18 scores more

30%

level

31%

Romania U18 scores more

39%

Romania U18 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Romania U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff