Turkey U18 vs North Macedonia U18

Turkey U18

CANC

17:00

North Macedonia U18

3/26/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turkey U1844%

×Draw29%

North Macedonia U1827%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U18Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

Turkey U18

1.27

North Macedonia U18

0.93

Turkey U18 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

0.60

1.25

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Turkey U18

0.75

North Macedonia U18

0.60

allows per match

Turkey U18

1.25

North Macedonia U18

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U18+0.00on par

North Macedonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U18 ↓

North Macedonia U18 →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Turkey U18 or draw

73%

Turkey U18 or North Macedonia U18

71%

Draw or North Macedonia U18

56%

Winning margin

Turkey U18 wins by 2+

20%

North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+

Team goals

Turkey U18 1+ goals

72%

Turkey U18 2+ goals

36%

Turkey U18 3+ goals

14%

North Macedonia U18 1+ goals

61%

North Macedonia U18 2+ goals

24%

North Macedonia U18 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Turkey U18 (draw refunded)

62%

North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turkey U18 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

North Macedonia U18 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U18 attack 0.75 + North Macedonia U18 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

North Macedonia U18 attack 0.60 + Turkey U18 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turkey U18 scores more

44%

level

29%

North Macedonia U18 scores more

27%

Turkey U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turkey U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff