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Turkey U17 vs North Macedonia U17 — Friendlies 2018

Turkey U17
Turkey U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
North Macedonia U17
North Macedonia U17
H. Sen 30'
1/20/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turkey U1749%
×Draw29%
North Macedonia U1722%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U17
1.29
North Macedonia U17
0.75

Turkey U17 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Turkey U17
1.33
North Macedonia U17
0.50

allows per match

Turkey U17
1.00
North Macedonia U17
1.25

finishing

Turkey U17+0.00on par
North Macedonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U17 ↓

North Macedonia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Turkey U17 or draw
78%
Turkey U17 or North Macedonia U17
71%
Draw or North Macedonia U17
51%

Winning margin

Turkey U17 wins by 2+
23%
North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Turkey U17 1+ goals
72%
Turkey U17 2+ goals
37%
Turkey U17 3+ goals
14%
North Macedonia U17 1+ goals
53%
North Macedonia U17 2+ goals
17%
North Macedonia U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Turkey U17 (draw refunded)
69%
North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U17 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

North Macedonia U17 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U17 attack 1.33 + North Macedonia U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

North Macedonia U17 attack 0.50 + Turkey U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turkey U17 scores more
49%
level
29%
North Macedonia U17 scores more
22%

Turkey U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Turkey U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
H. Sen
Turkey
North
O. Şam
Manager: O. Şam
R. Karanfilovski
Manager: R. Karanfilovski

Match Recap: Turkey U17 vs North Macedonia U17

Turkey U17 beat North Macedonia U17 1-0 in Friendlies on January 20, 2026.

Goals: H. Sen (30').