Turkey U17 0–0 Kazakhstan U17: Result & Stats

Turkey U17

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kazakhstan U17

10/21/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Emirhan Sport Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Turkey U1770%

×Draw18%

Kazakhstan U1713%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U17Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.90

Turkey U17

2.36

Kazakhstan U17

0.90

Turkey U17 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

2.47

creates per match

0.67

1.12

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Turkey U17

2.47

Kazakhstan U17

0.67

allows per match

Turkey U17

1.12

Kazakhstan U17

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U17+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U17 ↓

Kazakhstan U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Turkey U17 or draw

87%

Turkey U17 or Kazakhstan U17

82%

Draw or Kazakhstan U17

30%

Winning margin

Turkey U17 wins by 2+

47%

Kazakhstan U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Turkey U17 1+ goals

90%

Turkey U17 2+ goals

68%

Turkey U17 3+ goals

41%

Kazakhstan U17 1+ goals

59%

Kazakhstan U17 2+ goals

23%

Kazakhstan U17 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Turkey U17 (draw refunded)

84%

Kazakhstan U17 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Kazakhstan U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U17 attack 2.47 + Kazakhstan U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.36

Kazakhstan U17 attack 0.67 + Turkey U17 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Turkey U17 scores more

70%

level

18%

Kazakhstan U17 scores more

13%

Turkey U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Turkey U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff