Turkey U17 1–2 Germany U17: Result & Stats

Turkey U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Germany U17

3/22/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Emirhan Sport Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Turkey U1744%

×Draw21%

Germany U1735%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turkey U17Expected goals in this matchGermany U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.79

Turkey U17

2.01

Germany U17

1.79

Turkey U17 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

2.47

creates per match

2.45

1.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Turkey U17

2.47

Germany U17

2.45

allows per match

Turkey U17

1.12

Germany U17

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turkey U17+0.00on par

Germany U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U17 ↓

Germany U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Turkey U17 or draw

65%

Turkey U17 or Germany U17

79%

Draw or Germany U17

56%

Winning margin

Turkey U17 wins by 2+

24%

Germany U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Turkey U17 1+ goals

87%

Turkey U17 2+ goals

59%

Turkey U17 3+ goals

32%

Germany U17 1+ goals

83%

Germany U17 2+ goals

53%

Germany U17 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Turkey U17 (draw refunded)

55%

Germany U17 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Germany U17 away — creates 2.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U17 attack 2.47 + Germany U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.01

Germany U17 attack 2.45 + Turkey U17 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turkey U17 scores more

44%

level

21%

Germany U17 scores more

35%

Turkey U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turkey U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff