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Turkey U17 vs Chile U17 — Friendlies 2018

Turkey U17
Turkey U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chile U17
Chile U17
6/24/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turkey U1759%
×Draw22%
Chile U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turkey U17
1.92
Chile U17
1.00

Turkey U17 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Turkey U17
1.33
Chile U17
1.00

allows per match

Turkey U17
1.00
Chile U17
2.50

finishing

Turkey U17+0.00on par
Chile U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turkey U17 ↓

Chile U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Turkey U17 or draw
81%
Turkey U17 or Chile U17
78%
Draw or Chile U17
41%

Winning margin

Turkey U17 wins by 2+
35%
Chile U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turkey U17 1+ goals
85%
Turkey U17 2+ goals
57%
Turkey U17 3+ goals
30%
Chile U17 1+ goals
63%
Chile U17 2+ goals
26%
Chile U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Turkey U17 (draw refunded)
75%
Chile U17 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turkey U17 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Chile U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turkey U17 attack 1.33 + Chile U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Chile U17 attack 1.00 + Turkey U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Turkey U17 scores more
59%
level
22%
Chile U17 scores more
19%

Turkey U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Turkey U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Turkey U17 1–2 Chile U17

Chile U17 beat Turkey U17 2-1 in Friendlies on June 24, 2025.