Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mbao vs Biashara United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mbao
Mbao
FT
1 – 0
Biashara United
Biashara United
9/14/2019Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mbao49%
×Draw30%
Biashara United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbao
1.23
Biashara United
0.68

Mbao creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mbao
1.26
Biashara United
0.57

allows per match

Mbao
0.79
Biashara United
1.20

finishing

Mbao+0.00on par
Biashara United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbao ↓

Biashara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mbao or draw
79%
Mbao or Biashara United
70%
Draw or Biashara United
51%

Winning margin

Mbao wins by 2+
22%
Biashara United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mbao 1+ goals
71%
Mbao 2+ goals
35%
Mbao 3+ goals
13%
Biashara United 1+ goals
49%
Biashara United 2+ goals
15%
Biashara United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mbao (draw refunded)
71%
Biashara United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbao at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbao attack 1.26 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Biashara United attack 0.57 + Mbao defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mbao scores more
49%
level
30%
Biashara United scores more
21%

Mbao at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mbao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ligi kuu Bara: Mbao 1–0 Biashara United

Mbao beat Biashara United 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.