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Turbina Cërrik vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
11/12/20221st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Turbina Cërrik53%
×Draw29%
Oriku19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.32
Oriku
0.66

Turbina Cërrik creates 100% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 40 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
81%
Turbina Cërrik or Oriku
71%
Draw or Oriku
47%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
25%
Oriku wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
73%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
38%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
15%
Oriku 1+ goals
48%
Oriku 2+ goals
14%
Oriku 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
74%
Oriku (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oriku attack 0.40 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
53%
level
29%
Oriku scores more
19%

Turbina Cërrik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Oriku

Turbina Cërrik beat Oriku 2-1 in 1st Division on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.