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Turbina Cërrik vs Lushnja — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lushnja
Lushnja
3/24/20211st Division1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Turbina Cërrik51%
×Draw26%
Lushnja23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.48
Lushnja
0.90

Turbina Cërrik creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 99 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Lushnja
0.88

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Lushnja
1.58

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Lushnja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Lushnja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
77%
Turbina Cërrik or Lushnja
74%
Draw or Lushnja
49%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
26%
Lushnja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
77%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
43%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
19%
Lushnja 1+ goals
59%
Lushnja 2+ goals
23%
Lushnja 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
69%
Lushnja (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Lushnja away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Lushnja defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lushnja attack 0.88 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
51%
level
26%
Lushnja scores more
23%

Turbina Cërrik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Turbina Cërrik 2–1 Lushnja

Turbina Cërrik beat Lushnja 2-1 in 1st Division on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.