Lushnja 1–0 Turbina Cërrik: Result & Stats

Lushnja

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turbina Cërrik

5/26/2021

1st Division · Relegation Round - 10Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lushnja54%

×Draw25%

Turbina Cërrik22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LushnjaExpected goals in this matchTurbina Cërrik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.95

Lushnja

1.65

Turbina Cërrik

0.95

Lushnja creates 74% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 52 away

1.39

creates per match

0.83

1.07

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Lushnja

1.39

Turbina Cërrik

0.83

allows per match

Lushnja

1.07

Turbina Cërrik

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Turbina Cërrik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw

78%

Lushnja or Turbina Cërrik

75%

Draw or Turbina Cërrik

46%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+

29%

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals

81%

Lushnja 2+ goals

49%

Lushnja 3+ goals

23%

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals

61%

Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals

25%

Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)

71%

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lushnja scores more

54%

level

25%

Turbina Cërrik scores more

22%

Lushnja at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff