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Turbina Cërrik vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
9/14/20191st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Turbina Cërrik49%
×Draw27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.44
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.93

Turbina Cërrik creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 32 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.94

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.50

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Iliria Fushë-Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
76%
Turbina Cërrik or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
73%
Draw or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
51%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
76%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
42%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
18%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
61%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
67%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 0.94 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
49%
level
27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
24%

Turbina Cërrik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Turbina Cërrik 1–0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Turbina Cërrik beat Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1-0 in 1st Division on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.