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Turbina Cërrik vs Flamurtari — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
2/6/20211st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Turbina Cërrik39%
×Draw28%
Flamurtari33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.21
Flamurtari
1.09

Turbina Cërrik creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 55 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Flamurtari
1.27

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Flamurtari
1.04

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
67%
Turbina Cërrik or Flamurtari
72%
Draw or Flamurtari
61%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
17%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
70%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
34%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
12%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
66%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
30%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
54%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
39%
level
28%
Flamurtari scores more
33%

Turbina Cërrik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Turbina Cërrik 1–0 Flamurtari

Turbina Cërrik beat Flamurtari 1-0 in 1st Division on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.