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Turbina Cërrik vs Dinamo Tirana — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
4/9/20231st Division1st Division · Round 22Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Turbina Cërrik41%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Tirana31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.26
Dinamo Tirana
1.04

Turbina Cërrik creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Dinamo Tirana
1.17

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Dinamo Tirana
1.14

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
69%
Turbina Cërrik or Dinamo Tirana
72%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
59%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
72%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
36%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.17 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
41%
level
28%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
31%

Turbina Cërrik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Dinamo Tirana

Turbina Cërrik and Dinamo Tirana drew 1-1 in 1st Division on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.