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Turbina Cërrik vs Butrinti Sarandë — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
12/23/20211st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Turbina Cërrik53%
×Draw27%
Butrinti Sarandë20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.46
Butrinti Sarandë
0.79

Turbina Cërrik creates 85% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Butrinti Sarandë
0.65

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Butrinti Sarandë
1.53

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
80%
Turbina Cërrik or Butrinti Sarandë
73%
Draw or Butrinti Sarandë
47%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
27%
Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
77%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
43%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
18%
Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
55%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
19%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
72%
Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Butrinti Sarandë attack 0.65 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
53%
level
27%
Butrinti Sarandë scores more
20%

Turbina Cërrik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Butrinti Sarandë

Turbina Cërrik beat Butrinti Sarandë 1-0 in 1st Division on December 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.