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Turbina Cërrik vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
4/2/20221st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Turbina Cërrik43%
×Draw28%
Apolonia Fier29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.27
Apolonia Fier
0.99

Turbina Cërrik creates 28% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 95 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
71%
Turbina Cërrik or Apolonia Fier
72%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
57%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
19%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
72%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
36%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
14%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
63%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
26%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
60%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
43%
level
28%
Apolonia Fier scores more
29%

Turbina Cërrik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Apolonia Fier

Turbina Cërrik beat Apolonia Fier 2-1 in 1st Division on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.