Turan 1–0 Sogdiana: Result & Stats | Super League

Turan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sogdiana

F. Musaev 24'

8/14/2021

Super League · Round 15O'zbekiston Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turan34%

×Draw30%

Sogdiana36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.09

Turan

1.04

Sogdiana

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 102 away

0.69

creates per match

1.10

1.08

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Turan

0.69

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Turan

1.08

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Turan or draw

64%

Turan or Sogdiana

70%

Draw or Sogdiana

66%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

13%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

65%

Turan 2+ goals

28%

Turan 3+ goals

9%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

66%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

30%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

48%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 0.69 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Turan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Turan scores more

34%

level

30%

Sogdiana scores more

36%

Sogdiana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

E. Ismoilov

14'

F. Musaev

24'

F. Musaev

46'

E. Oripov← B. Nasimov

55'

A. Begimkulov← E. Ismoilov

63'

Kim Bo-Yong← I. Toshpulatov

76'

D. Stanojević← S. Djurabekov

76'

J. Khakimov← J. Khasanov

79'

E. Oripov

80'

D. Ismoilov← S. Abdullajonov

80'

O. Zokirov← B. Toshmirzaev

86'

G. Komilov← K. Murtazaev

Turan

Sogdiana

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Shkvyrin

63'▲Kim Bo-Yong←▼I. Toshpulatov

80'▲D. Ismoilov←▼S. Abdullajonov

80'▲O. Zokirov←▼B. Toshmirzaev

86'▲G. Komilov←▼K. Murtazaev

Turan substitutes

Bo-YongIsmoilovZokirovKomilovOrtikovToshtemirovUmirovChakalovOkhunjonov

Manager: U. Bakaev

46'▲E. Oripov←▼B. Nasimov

55'▲A. Begimkulov←▼E. Ismoilov

76'▲D. Stanojević←▼S. Djurabekov

76'▲J. Khakimov←▼J. Khasanov

Sogdiana substitutes

OripovBegimkulovStanojevićKhakimovPirmatovBozorovQo'yboqovAbdullayev