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Turan vs Səbail — Premyer Liqa 2019

Turan
Turan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Səbail
Səbail
8/30/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 5Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Turan51%
×Draw25%
Səbail24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turan
1.63
Səbail
1.04

Turan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 92 away

creates per match

Turan
1.38
Səbail
0.82

allows per match

Turan
1.27
Səbail
1.89

finishing

Turan+0.00on par
Səbail+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Səbail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Turan or draw
76%
Turan or Səbail
75%
Draw or Səbail
49%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+
27%
Səbail wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals
80%
Turan 2+ goals
48%
Turan 3+ goals
22%
Səbail 1+ goals
65%
Səbail 2+ goals
28%
Səbail 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)
68%
Səbail (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

Səbail away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 1.38 + Səbail defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Səbail attack 0.82 + Turan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Turan scores more
51%
level
25%
Səbail scores more
24%

Turan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turan 1 – 0 Səbail

Turan beat Səbail 1-0 in Premyer Liqa on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Tovuz.