Turan 0–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats | Super League

Turan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pakhtakor

5/6/2023

Super League · Round 9O'zbekiston Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Turan19%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.57

Turan

0.79

Pakhtakor

1.57

Pakhtakor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

0.71

creates per match

1.85

1.29

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Turan

0.71

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Turan

1.29

Pakhtakor

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Turan or draw

44%

Turan or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

81%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

6%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

55%

Turan 2+ goals

19%

Turan 3+ goals

5%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

79%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

46%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

25%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 0.71 + Pakhtakor defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.79

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Turan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Turan scores more

19%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

56%

Pakhtakor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff