Turan 2–2 Khazar Lankaran: Result & Stats

Turan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Khazar Lankaran

E. Günlü 69'

A. Rukavina 22'

R. Alviz 67' (pen)

E. Abdullayev 42'

4/13/2013

Premyer Liqa · Relegation Round - 4Dalga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Turan41%

×Draw27%

Khazar Lankaran32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchKhazar Lankaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Turan

1.35

Khazar Lankaran

1.17

Turan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.38

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Turan

1.38

Khazar Lankaran

1.33

allows per match

Turan

1.00

Khazar Lankaran

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Khazar Lankaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Khazar Lankaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turan or draw

68%

Turan or Khazar Lankaran

73%

Draw or Khazar Lankaran

59%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

19%

Khazar Lankaran wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

74%

Turan 2+ goals

39%

Turan 3+ goals

15%

Khazar Lankaran 1+ goals

69%

Khazar Lankaran 2+ goals

33%

Khazar Lankaran 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

56%

Khazar Lankaran (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Khazar Lankaran away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 1.38 + Khazar Lankaran defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Khazar Lankaran attack 1.33 + Turan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Turan scores more

41%

level

27%

Khazar Lankaran scores more

32%

Turan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Rukavina

31'

G. Gülec← R. Todorov

42'

E. Abdullayev

46'

A. Stukalov← Ä. Abbasov

46'

M. Agakisiyev← A. Qädiri

52'

S. Tounkara← D. Sialmas

61'

K. Kazimli← U. Pamuk

67'

R. AlvizPenalty

69'

E. Günlü

73'

V. Rzayev← V. Bäybalayev

Turan

Khazar

25

27

3

5

16

99

21

▼

Todorov

6

⚽

Alviz

10

⚽

Abdullaye

11

▼

Sialmas

9

▼

1

2

26

13

14

⚽

Günlü

19

▼

Qädiri

17

Äliyev

4

▼

Bäybalaye

16

▼

Abbasov

21

⚽

Rukavina

20

Janelidze

46'▲A. Stukalov←▼Ä. Abbasov

46'▲M. Agakisiyev←▼A. Qädiri

73'▲V. Rzayev←▼V. Bäybalayev

Turan substitutes

3Stukalov9Agakisiyev5Rzayev6Rähimov21Manafov23Beraia27Särhätov

31'▲G. Gülec←▼R. Todorov

52'▲S. Tounkara←▼D. Sialmas

61'▲K. Kazimli←▼U. Pamuk

Khazar Lankaran substitutes

24Gülec7Tounkara17Kazimli30Doblas35Olguín97Cäfärov