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Turan Turkistan vs Tobol 2 — 1. Division 2026

Turan Turkistan
Turan Turkistan
Preview
15:00
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
7/24/20261. Division1. Division · Round 15Turkestan Arena
80%
Turan Turkistan
model favours
80%14%6%

Turan Turkistan sit 3, Tobol 2 14 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Turan Turkistan80%
×Draw14%
Tobol 26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turan Turkistan
2.50
Tobol 2
0.54

Turan Turkistan creates 363% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Turan Turkistan
2.00
Tobol 2
0.33

allows per match

Turan Turkistan
0.75
Tobol 2
3.00

finishing

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par
Tobol 2+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan Turkistan ↓

Tobol 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Turan Turkistan or draw
94%
Turan Turkistan or Tobol 2
86%
Draw or Tobol 2
20%

Winning margin

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+
58%
Tobol 2 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals
92%
Turan Turkistan 2+ goals
71%
Turan Turkistan 3+ goals
45%
Tobol 2 1+ goals
42%
Tobol 2 2+ goals
10%
Tobol 2 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)
93%
Tobol 2 (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan Turkistan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Tobol 2 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan Turkistan attack 2.00 + Tobol 2 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tobol 2 attack 0.33 + Turan Turkistan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Turan Turkistan scores more
80%
level
14%
Tobol 2 scores more
6%

Turan Turkistan at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Turan Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Turkistan
WLDWW
2
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Turan Turkistan face Tobol 2 (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Turan Turkistan hosting Tobol 2. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Turan Turkistan host Tobol 2 at Turkestan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.