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Tobol 2 vs Turan Turkistan — 1. Division 2022

Tobol 2
Tobol 2
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Turan Turkistan
Turan Turkistan
A. Zinadin 65', 24'
U. Mukhametzhanov 84'
K. Duysenbekuly 22', 13'
4/24/20261. Division1. Division · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tobol 224%
×Draw18%
Turan Turkistan58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tobol 2
1.75
Turan Turkistan
2.75

Turan Turkistan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tobol 2
2.71
Turan Turkistan
2.65

allows per match

Tobol 2
2.86
Turan Turkistan
0.80

finishing

Tobol 2+0.00on par
Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobol 2 ↓

Turan Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Tobol 2 or draw
42%
Tobol 2 or Turan Turkistan
82%
Draw or Turan Turkistan
76%

Winning margin

Tobol 2 wins by 2+
11%
Turan Turkistan wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Tobol 2 1+ goals
83%
Tobol 2 2+ goals
52%
Tobol 2 3+ goals
25%
Turan Turkistan 1+ goals
93%
Turan Turkistan 2+ goals
75%
Turan Turkistan 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Tobol 2 (draw refunded)
29%
Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobol 2 at home — creates 2.71, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Turan Turkistan away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobol 2 attack 2.71 + Turan Turkistan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Turan Turkistan attack 2.65 + Tobol 2 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tobol 2 scores more
24%
level
18%
Turan Turkistan scores more
58%

Turan Turkistan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Turan Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
K. Duysenbekuly↳ E. Saidov
22'
K. Duysenbekuly↳ D. Narzildaev
24'
A. Zinadin
65'
A. Zinadin
84'
U. Mukhametzhanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tobol 2 vs Turan Turkistan

Turan Turkistan beat Tobol 2 3-2 in 1. Division on April 24, 2026.

Goals: K. Duysenbekuly (13', 22'), A. Zinadin (24', 65'), U. Mukhametzhanov (84').