Turan Turkistan 0–0 Kaspiy: Result & Stats | Cup

Turan Turkistan

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kaspiy

3/18/2024

Cup · Qualifying Round - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Turan Turkistan25%

×Draw27%

Kaspiy48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turan TurkistanExpected goals in this matchKaspiy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.42

Turan Turkistan

0.96

Kaspiy

1.42

Kaspiy creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

0.75

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Turan Turkistan

0.75

Kaspiy

1.33

allows per match

Turan Turkistan

1.50

Kaspiy

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan Turkistan ↓

Kaspiy →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Turan Turkistan or draw

52%

Turan Turkistan or Kaspiy

73%

Draw or Kaspiy

75%

Winning margin

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

Kaspiy wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

62%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

25%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

76%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

41%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

35%

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Turan Turkistan at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Turan Turkistan attack 0.75 + Kaspiy defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kaspiy attack 1.33 + Turan Turkistan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Turan Turkistan scores more

25%

level

27%

Kaspiy scores more

48%

Kaspiy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

N. Abilkairov

46'

O. Mukhanov← N. Ayazbaev

62'

N. Abdulla← N. Abdulla

77'

A. Nabikhanov

80'

E. Chingzhirbekov← E. Chingzhirbekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff