Turan Turkistan 1–0 Atyrau: Result & Stats

Turan Turkistan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atyrau

A. Zhumabek 41'

5/10/2025

Premier League · Round 8Turkestan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Turan Turkistan36%

×Draw27%

Atyrau37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turan TurkistanExpected goals in this matchAtyrau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.22

Turan Turkistan

1.21

Atyrau

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 90 away

0.88

creates per match

0.91

1.52

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Turan Turkistan

0.88

Atyrau

0.91

allows per match

Turan Turkistan

1.52

Atyrau

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Atyrau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan Turkistan ↓

Atyrau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Turan Turkistan or draw

63%

Turan Turkistan or Atyrau

73%

Draw or Atyrau

64%

Winning margin

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

15%

Atyrau wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

70%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

34%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

12%

Atyrau 1+ goals

70%

Atyrau 2+ goals

34%

Atyrau 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

50%

Atyrau (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan Turkistan at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Atyrau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan Turkistan attack 0.88 + Atyrau defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atyrau attack 0.91 + Turan Turkistan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Turan Turkistan scores more

36%

level

27%

Atyrau scores more

37%

Atyrau at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atyrau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Evgeniy Kozlov

24'

Rinat Dzhumatov

41'

A. Zhumabek↳ S. Umarov

45'

45+1'

46'

49'

58'

R. Atykhanov← Z. Tsitskishvili

58'

E. Kaldybekov← S. Sagnaev

66'

B. Zulfikarov← Y. Trufanov

68'

K. Dorofeev← A. Zhumabek

69'

V. Sovpel← S. Umarov

71'

Jovan Pajović

72'

Mikael Askarov

77'

E. Oralbay← T. Chunchukov

84'

L. Zgurskiy← B. Askarov

88'

Edige Oralbay

90+3'

S. Malikaydar← I. Stasevich

Turan4-2-3-1

Atyrau

45

14

6

13

72

10

66

▼

Sagnaev

7

▼

Kozlov

8

▼

Tsitskish

18

▼

Trufanov

33

▼

1

17

6

44

2

77

20

7

A

▼

Umarov

8

▼

Askarov

22

▼

Stasevich

9

⚽

▼

Zhumabek

Manager: V. Zhukovskiy

68'▲K. Dorofeev←▼A. Zhumabek

69'▲V. Sovpel←▼S. Umarov

84'▲L. Zgurskiy←▼B. Askarov

90+3'▲S. Malikaydar←▼I. Stasevich

Turan Turkistan substitutes

89Dorofeev78Zakirov71Sovpel28Khadzhiev27Mukhambetzhanuly24Duysenbekuly19Sarsenbay18Asanbek15Zgurskiy13Malikaydar11Toybekov5Satyshev

46'▲K. Smykov←▼E. Kozlov

58'▲R. Atykhanov←▼Z. Tsitskishvili

58'▲E. Kaldybekov←▼S. Sagnaev

66'▲B. Zulfikarov←▼Y. Trufanov

77'▲E. Oralbay←▼T. Chunchukov

Atyrau substitutes

77Smykov35Tokhtarov23Nabikhanov21Atykhanov20Kaldybekov17Abzalov11Oralbay9Zulfikarov4Chaduneli

Match Recap: Turan Turkistan vs Atyrau

Turan Turkistan beat Atyrau 1-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2025.

Goals: A. Zhumabek (41').

The match was played at Turkestan Arena in Turkestan.

Turan Turkistan vs Atyrau — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turan Turkistan vs Atyrau