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TuRaKe vs SalPa II — Suomen Cup 2018

TuRaKe
TuRaKe
FT
3 – 1
SalPa II
SalPa II
3/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TuRaKe24%
×Draw21%
SalPa II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRaKe
1.35
SalPa II
2.15

SalPa II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

TuRaKe
1.20
SalPa II
2.50

allows per match

TuRaKe
1.80
SalPa II
1.50

finishing

TuRaKe+0.00on par
SalPa II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRaKe ↓

SalPa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuRaKe or draw
45%
TuRaKe or SalPa II
79%
Draw or SalPa II
76%

Winning margin

TuRaKe wins by 2+
10%
SalPa II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

TuRaKe 1+ goals
74%
TuRaKe 2+ goals
39%
TuRaKe 3+ goals
15%
SalPa II 1+ goals
88%
SalPa II 2+ goals
63%
SalPa II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

TuRaKe (draw refunded)
30%
SalPa II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRaKe at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

SalPa II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRaKe attack 1.20 + SalPa II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

SalPa II attack 2.50 + TuRaKe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TuRaKe scores more
24%
level
21%
SalPa II scores more
55%

SalPa II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SalPa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuRaKe vs SalPa II

TuRaKe beat SalPa II 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.