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TuRaKe vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

TuRaKe
TuRaKe
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
5/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundUrheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuRaKe20%
×Draw21%
Mariehamn60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuRaKe
1.12
Mariehamn
2.10

Mariehamn creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

creates per match

TuRaKe
1.20
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

TuRaKe
1.80
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

TuRaKe+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuRaKe ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TuRaKe or draw
40%
TuRaKe or Mariehamn
79%
Draw or Mariehamn
80%

Winning margin

TuRaKe wins by 2+
7%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

TuRaKe 1+ goals
67%
TuRaKe 2+ goals
31%
TuRaKe 3+ goals
10%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
88%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
62%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

TuRaKe (draw refunded)
25%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuRaKe at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuRaKe attack 1.20 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + TuRaKe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TuRaKe scores more
20%
level
21%
Mariehamn scores more
60%

Mariehamn at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuRaKe 0–7 Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat TuRaKe 7-0 in Suomen Cup on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.