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Tupynambás vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
5/27/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Campo da UFJF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tupynambás28%
×Draw32%
Uniao Trabalhadores39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
0.81
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.01

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.22

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.91

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
61%
Tupynambás or Uniao Trabalhadores
68%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
72%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
9%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
56%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
19%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
5%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
64%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
27%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
42%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tupynambás scores more
28%
level
32%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
39%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupynambás vs Uniao Trabalhadores

Uniao Trabalhadores beat Tupynambás 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Campo da UFJF in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.